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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.