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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.