Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."