Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”