Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.